Climate and Energy Systems; Risks, Potential and Adaptation

Background
Uncertainty about the future of renewable energy resources under climate change is a key issue for the energy sector. While some renewable energy sources may experience an increase in productivity, others may decrease. Such changes in the seasonal and geographical patterns of supply and demand, as well as an increase in extreme events such as floods, droughts and storms will likely cause significant market disturbances if not managed properly.

Project goal
The project aims to assess the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20-30 years in the context of climate change. It will address how the conditions for production of renewable energy in the Nordic area might change due to climate change. It will focus on the potential for production and the future security and uncertainties of the Nordic production systems.

Key objectives of the project:
• Understanding of the natural variability and predictability of climate and renewable energy systems at different scales in space and time.
• Assessment of the risks due to changes in probabilities and nature of extreme events.
• Assessment of the risks and opportunities due to changes in production of renewable energy.
• Development of guiding principles for decisions under climate variability and change.
• Development of adaptation strategies.
• A structured dialog with stakeholders.



Project steering group:
• Árni Snorrason, Icelandic Meteorological Office, IS
• Sten Bergström, SMHI, SE
• Erik Kjellström, SMHI, SE
• Hege Hisdal, Norwegian Energy and Water Directorate, NO
• Niels-Erik Clausen, Risö, DK
• Helena Kortelainen, VTT, FI
• Birger Mo, SINTEF, NO
• Stefania G. Halldorsdottir, Hugur/Ax, IS
• Lars Hammar, Elforsk, SE
• Kati Takala, Finnish Energy Industries, FI
• Oli Gretar Sveinsson, Landsvirkjun, IS
• Aksel Hauge Pedersen, DONG Energy, DK
• Thomas Johannesson, Icelandic Meteorological Office, IS
• Tom Andersen, Statkraft, NO

More information
Project duration: 2007 - 2010
Budget: 18.235.000 million NOK
Nordic Energy Research contributes with 53%

Contact information
Project Manager: Dr. Árni Snorrason, Icelandic Meteorological Office, IS
Phone: + 354-8934222
E-mail asn@vedur.is
Project website: www.os.is/ces.

Any preliminary results and publications from this project will be presented on this website, as well as in our quarterly newsletter ORKA.